Delegation and the regulation of U.S. financial markets

We analyze the institutional determinants of U.S. financial market regulation with a general model of the policy-making process in which legislators delegate authority to regulate financial risk at both the firm and systemic levels. The model explains changes in U.S. financial regulation leading up to the financial crisis. We test the predictions of the general model with a novel, comprehensive data set of financial regulatory laws enacted specifically between 1950 and 2009. The theoretical and empirical analysis finds that economic and political factors impact Congress’ decision to delegate regulatory authority to executive agencies, which in turn impacts the stringency of financial market regulation, and our estimation results indicate that political factors may have been stronger and resulted in inefficiencies.     

Political booms and currency crises

This paper shows evidence that political booms, defined as the rise in governments’ popularity, are associated with a higher likelihood of currency crises. The reasoning behind this finding is that prudent economic policies to address underlying weaknesses in the economy may be political costly for incumbent governments in the short-term. Hence, popularity-concerned governments may not have enough incentives to take such corrective actions in a timely manner. This approach, in turn, can deteriorate economic fundamentals and increase related risks in the economy which can eventually lead to crises. This paper sheds light on this phenomenon in the case of currency crises, suggesting that currency crises can be viewed as “political booms gone bust” events. Moreover, it finds that higher international reserves, higher exports, and a higher degree of financial openness alleviate the effect of political booms on currency crises.     

Revisiting the ICAPM under the distortion of risk–return tradeoff in short-horizon stock returns

We suggest that the distortion of the positive risk–return relation in the ICAPM is a consequence of trading by informed investors to exploit mispricing. We hypothesize and demonstrate that a non-positive (strongly positive) risk–return relation following positive (negative) market returns is attributed to short-selling (purchasing) of overpriced (underpriced) stocks along with optimistic (pessimistic) expectations conditional on good (bad) market news. We verify this asymmetry in the risk–return relation through the indirect risk–return relation conditional on good (bad) market news. We also find that the attenuation (reinforcement) of the positive risk–return relation is more profound in high- (low-) sentiment periods.     

Sentiment-scaled CAPM and market mispricing

This study explores the conditional version of the capital asset pricing model on sentiment to provide a behavioural intuition behind the value premium and market mispricing. We find betas (β) and the market risk premium to vary over time across different sentiment indices and portfolios. More importantly, the state β derived from this sentiment-scaled model provides a behavioural explanation of the value premium and a set of anomalies driven by mispricing. Different from the static β–return relation that gives a flat security market line, we document upward security market lines when plotting portfolio returns against their state βs and portfolios with higher state βs earn higher returns.     

Depletion of psychological,financial, and social resources in the hospitality sector during the pandemic

This study details how psychological, financial, and social factors shape employee deviant interpersonal behaviors during a pandemic. Data were collected with a survey of 372 front-line employees of hotels and analyzed with PLS-SEM. The findings showed social disconnectedness and perceived risk of unemployment leads to perceived isolation, which further creates depression in employees. The findings also showed that depression is positively related to employee deviance. Financial strain is a major cause of perceived isolation, depression, and deviant behaviors among front-line employees. Results also proved that social support reduces fear of isolation, depression, and employee deviance. This study provides guidelines that hotels need to understand the psychological stance of employees and design policies to overcome employee perceived fears and psychological disorders.     

从利益共同体到命运共同体:地方政府隐性债务的合作治理

在地方政府性债务的治理中,隐性债务因其增长迅速、规模不清和风险不确定,成为未来债务治理的重点和难点。隐性债务挟裹主体众多,关联利益甚广,因此,基于共同体视角,明确治理主体,有利于化解风险。在隐性债务生产阶段,因利而合的共同体大肆攫取利益导致隐性债务激增;在债务风险凸显阶段,利益共同体的本能选择不是"安危与共",而是"大难临头各自保"。但债务风险的"飞去来器效应"和群体性焦虑,将促使利益共同体走向命运共同体。命运共同体既是利益共同体,更是治理共同体。在隐性债务治理阶段,共同体应形成"共生"意识、采取"共治"行动、构筑"共担"保障,实现有效共治。     

重大水利工程项目决策社会稳定风险评估中公众参与成熟度的影响路径

重大水利工程项目决策社会稳定风险评估中,公众是重要的参与主体,个体间生活环境、知识背景及心理素质的差异性会直接影响稳评结果。公众参与成熟度是公众参与的衡量要素,由能力成熟度和心理成熟度两个方面构成。从能力与心理两个角度设计调查问卷,运用结构方程模型,探究内部影响路径。结果表明,公众参与心理成熟度直接影响能力成熟度,而能力成熟度又通过参与意愿影响着心理成熟度,两者间存在相互影响的关系。政府可以通过开展道德素质教育,改善公众参与动机,以提高公众参与心理成熟度及能力成熟度,最终整体提高公众参与成熟度,保证稳评工作的质量,提升重大水利工程项目决策科学性。     

疫情期间国际工程投标报价风险分析及费用计算方法研究

随着我国经济的快速发展和“走出去”、“一带一路”倡议的实施,越来越多的企业在政府的带动下开始进军国际市场,但是国际工程往往施工周期长、金额较大、技术复杂、政府干预较多、不确定性因素多,风险与机遇并存,针对2020年全球新冠病毒蔓延这一特殊的时期,企业更应在投标阶段做好风险分析、测算、管控工作,合理规避风险,总结经验教训,保证企业履约能力和竞争性。     

农产品供应链重构风险传导SIR建模与仿真研究

[目的]利用动力学SIR模型模拟农产品供应链重构内生风险传导过程,以期在有效把握核心重构风险传导规律基础上为整体管控重构进程风险提出前瞻性思路。[方法]基于农产品供应链重构风险整体构架和重构进程风险传导复杂网络,以湖北省243家大型连锁超市生鲜农产品供应链2007—2017年重构样本数据为研究对象,建立重构进程内生风险传导SIR模型和规划演化模式,利用Matlab软件对模型仿真得到有效管控状态下演化趋势。[结果]在以战术性重构为主导组织结构战略性重构中进程风险传导安全边际X1s超过50%,决定了其净风险阈α0(i)、β0(i),相应的业务单元和功能模块重构进程风险预警和风险恢复能力提高值是主控指标,对进程风险传导感染率x1(i)和恢复率x2(i)起主导作用。[结论]近年来土地流转驱动农产品供应链重构中组织结构重构整体具有战略性,在以战术性重构为主导风险传导管控中重点应加强业务单元和功能模块重构进程在重构易感状态(S)、感染传播状态(I)管控能力,能有效降低波动幅度。     

新冠肺炎疫情对供应链弹性管理的启示

新冠肺炎疫情将对中国产业供应链的持续竞争力形成挑战,使企业面临人力短缺、成本增加、现金流紧张和供应链不确定性增高等问题,在企业供应链的原材料供应、采购管理、生产复工、物流以及市场等方面均会产生一定的负面影响,这对供应链弹性管理提出了新的要求。在政府层面,应建立综合、协同性的产业供应链风险管理和沟通机制,构建基于事件的产业供应链预警体系,保障企业供应链运营的资源体系,推动产业平台和产业集群带动供应链参与者建立供应链弹性体系。在企业层面,应建立基于企业事件的供应链预警体系,根据供应链预警信息和状况,合理规划供应链运营方式,运用数字化能力建设企业供应链弹性体系,稳定供应链运营,提升供应链效率。